Coffee Hits Highest Price in Nearly 50 Years

The coffee price in the commodities market has reached an almost five-decade high following concerns of adverse conditions impacting crop output and ongoing supply chain issues.
Arabica makes up about three-quarters of global coffee production. The remaining 25 percent is accounted for by the robusta crop. The Intercontinental Exchange is a benchmark for arabica coffee.
“Weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam continue to be closely monitored.”
Vietnam is a key producer of robusta.
More than 1.7 million bags of coffee were not shipped by October because of issues including changes in shipping schedules, according to the second report. The lost volume is equivalent to more than 5,200 shipping containers.
Arabica coffee prices have risen by about 70 percent this year. This makes arabica one of the strongest performing commodities alongside cocoa, for which prices have more than doubled.
Dealers also said some Brazilian farmers have delayed deliveries of this year’s crop in the hope of securing even higher prices, leading to short-term supply tightness and large financial losses for traders who had been expecting to receive the coffee.
Initially, production forecasts for 2024 were positive, with key coffee-producing regions in the country experiencing good weather. However, higher temperatures, irregular rainfall, and drought have led to a 6 percent cut in forecasts.
“There is currently reduced global supply of robusta mainly from Vietnam. The monthly price average of robusta in Brazil surpassed arabica values in September, leading to record exports of Brazilian coffee and giving a new boost to producers,” the report stated.
“However, the lack of rain throughout 2024 is already impacting arabica and robusta crops, which could compromise the production of the 2025/26 harvest.”
Between June and September, some parts of Brazil experienced 130 straight days without rainfall. The quality of initial harvests was deemed to be below expectations.
Meanwhile, the coffee market is also facing another challenge: the EU Deforestation Regulation, which requires businesses importing products such as coffee, rubber, and wood to ensure that these products are not cultivated on deforested land.
The regulation will now come into effect on Dec. 30, 2025, for large companies and on June 30, 2026, for micro- and small enterprises.
“The timeline extension provides much-needed breathing space for smallholder farmers who face significant challenges in complying with the stringent geodata and traceability requirements set forth by the regulation,” it stated.
Small-scale farmers account for up to 80 percent of global coffee production, according to the group.
“Smallholder coffee farmers face mounting climate, market, and compliance challenges,” it said. “Critical support is necessary.”